Load Growth Surge: Preparing for the Future of Energy Transmission

‍

The energy landscape is changing rapidly, with unprecedented load growth challenging our existing infrastructure. As we look towards 2025 and beyond, it's crucial to understand the drivers behind this surge and implement solutions to meet the growing demand. Let's explore the causes of load growth, its impact on states like Missouri, Kansas, and Texas, and how grid-enhancing technologies like dynamic line rating (DLR) can help optimize our energy grid.

What is Causing Rapid Load Growth?

The utility industry is experiencing a seismic shift from decades of low growth to a projected annual peak demand growth of 3% over the next five years. This surge is primarily driven by:

1. Data Centers: The rise of artificial intelligence and cloud computing has led to a boom in data center construction, with some forecasts suggesting over 90 GW of future data center load. An expert panel discussed the impact of data centers on load growth in more detail in LineVision’s recent webinar.
2. Manufacturing Expansion: New industrial facilities, particularly in semiconductor and battery production, are contributing significantly to load growth.
3. Electrification: The transition to electric vehicles and building electrification is gaining momentum, becoming a dominant source of growth in some regions.
4. Oil and Gas Production: In areas that produce oil and gas, power demand is increasing due to expanded operations.
5. Hydrogen Fuel Plants: These facilities are emerging as potential major factors in future electric load forecasts.

The Urgency of Planning for 2025 and Beyond

The rapid pace of load growth necessitates immediate action and long-term planning. Here's why:

• Infrastructure Lag: While it may take only 1-2 years to connect new load to the grid, bringing new generation online can take over 4 years, and building new transmission lines takes even longer.
• Economic Impact: Failure to meet growing electricity demand could hinder America's economic, technological, and geopolitical leadership.
• Reliability Concerns: As demand surges, maintaining grid reliability becomes increasingly challenging as it strains our current grid infrastructure.

A Transmission Bottleneck

Despite the urgent need for expanded transmission capacity, construction has been alarmingly slow:

• In 2023, only 55 miles of high-capacity transmission (greater than 345 kV) were built in the U.S. While investment seems to have increased significantly in 2024 to $15.1 billion, building new transmission takes time.
• The lack of new transmission development does not reflect rapidly increasing load growth projections, which have shot up from a projected 2.8% to 15.8% over the next five years.

Spotlight on Load Growth Challenges in Missouri, Kansas, and Texas

Missouri and Kansas (SPP)

Data centers and an EV battery manufacturing plant opening in 2025 are projected to spike load growth by 2-3% by 2029. While this is an incredible economic opportunity for the region, there is an increased need for capacity as these facilities strain demand. Customers are seeing a significant increase in their rates and utilities are doing their best to ease the financial burden this poses to their communities. 

Short and long-term strategies are needed to meet these challenges and better serve the communities affected by load growth.

Texas (ERCOT)

Load growth is projected to be enormous with an increase of 43 GW through 2029. This will be driven by population growth, acceleration of electrification, and data centers. As more demands are placed on the energy grid, keeping customer rates low is a challenge in this region.

The Houston area also experienced strong storm activity in 2024, which caused outages throughout the region. As climate volatility becomes more frequent, delivering a reliable self-healing grid is top of mind for utilities as load growth increases. 

How Dynamic Line Ratings (DLR) Can Help

Dynamic line ratings can unlock additional transmission capability up to 40% without building new power lines. DLR can be implemented in a matter of weeks, providing a fast solution to meeting energy demands by helping to maximize the use of existing infrastructure. This helps utilities defer or avoid costly new transmission projects and allows them to incorporate more renewable energy sources into the grid, potentially saving millions of dollars. 

Real-time monitoring provided by dynamic line ratings helps utilities manage the grid during extreme weather events, improving system reliability.

Conclusion: Embracing Innovation for a Reliable Energy Future

As we face unprecedented load growth, particularly in states like Missouri, Kansas, and Texas, it's clear that traditional approaches to grid management are no longer sufficient. While building new transmission infrastructure remains crucial, the implementation of grid-enhancing technologies like dynamic line ratings offers an immediate solution to optimize our existing energy grid.

By embracing these innovations, we can enhance grid reliability, integrate more renewable energy sources, and ensure that our energy infrastructure keeps pace with the rapid technological and industrial growth driving our economy. As we look towards 2025 and beyond, the power industry must act swiftly to implement these solutions, ensuring a resilient and efficient energy future for all.

Contact LineVision's team of experts to discover how dynamic line ratings can help optimize the grid to meet load growth demand.

‍